Paris Climate Change Conference, 2015 (COP 21; CMP 11)

Let us first understand why Paris 2015 is considered a turning point in global climate governance.

Till the Kyoto Protocol, climate action was top-down—targets were imposed mainly on developed countries. This created resistance and limited participation. Paris changed the philosophy altogether.

Why was Paris Summit so important?

It was the most crucial climate conference after Kyoto.
For the first time, all countries—developed and developing—came on a single platform.
The focus shifted from “who must reduce” to “how much can each country realistically contribute”.

Before the summit:

146 countries submitted draft INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions).
Unlike Kyoto, no rigid country-wise emission targets or timetables were imposed.

👉 This ensured universal participation, even from major polluters like China, the US, and India.

📜 Paris Agreement: Core Framework

The outcome of COP-21 was the historic Paris Agreement.

Key Features:

A legally binding international treaty on climate change.
Adopted by 196 Parties in Paris (2015).
Entered into force in 2016, after:
- Ratification by 55 countries
- Accounting for 55% of global emissions

🇮🇳 India signed and ratified the agreement in 2016.

What is Ratification?

Signing shows intent.
Ratification means formal consent under domestic law to be legally bound by the treaty.

🌡️ Temperature Goals under Paris Agreement

The Agreement sets clear long-term climate goals:

Limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
Pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C (aspirational goal).

What does this imply?

Net zero anthropogenic GHG emissions must be achieved in the second half of the 21st century.
For the 1.5°C pathway, global net zero emissions are required between 2030–2050.

💰 Climate Finance Commitment

Developed countries reaffirmed the pledge of mobilising $100 billion per year by 2020.
This commitment was extended till 2025.
Funds are meant for:
- Mitigation
- Adaptation
- Capacity building in developing countries

⚠️ A major criticism: Actual delivery of finance has lagged behind promises.

🇺🇸 US Withdrawal Episode

In 2017, the US announced its withdrawal.
It formally exited in November 2020 (though it later rejoined under a new administration).

🌱 Climate Neutral Now Initiative

Launched by the UNFCCC Secretariat in 2015.

Objective:

To encourage individuals, companies, and governments to contribute towards a climate-neutral world by mid-century.

Three-Step Process:

Measure climate footprint
Reduce emissions as much as possible
Offset unavoidable emissions using UN-certified emission reductions

🤝 China–US Deal on Emission Cuts

Just before the Paris Summit:

US committed to reduce emissions 26–28% below 2005 levels by 2025.
China committed to:
- Peak CO₂ emissions by 2030
- Increase non-fossil fuel share to 20%

📌 Impact on India:

India’s per capita emissions:
- ~1/10th of the US
- ~1/4th of China
Yet, the deal increased pressure on India to make voluntary commitments.

⚖️ Net Zero Emissions & Carbon Neutrality

Definitions:

Net Zero: Emissions released ≤ emissions removed.
Carbon Neutrality: Net zero CO₂ emissions specifically.

Global Requirement:

45% emission reduction by 2030
Net zero by 2050 to limit warming to 1.5°C

This requires:

Phasing out coal
Complete shift to renewables

Current Status:

Major emitters like China, US, and India have not legally committed to net zero yet.
Countries with net zero legislation:
- Sweden
- Norway
- UK
- France
- New Zealand
  ➡️ Only Sweden targets net zero before 2050

🌳 Suriname and Bhutan are the only carbon-negative countries.

🛠️ How Can Net Zero Be Achieved?

Key Strategies:

Clean coal technology (short term)
Carbon sequestration
Afforestation (carbon sinks)
Geoengineering (last resort)
Electric mobility & renewable energy
Carbon tax & carbon trading

Underlying Principle:

👉 Polluter Pays Principle

Implemented through:
- Carbon Tax
- Emission Trading Schemes

🇪🇺 European Green New Deal

EU initially committed to 40% emission reduction by 2030 (1990 baseline).
Under the Green Deal:
- Target increased to 50–55%
- Climate neutrality by 2050

⚠️ Even the earlier 40% target was the most ambitious among developed nations.

🇮🇳 India’s Objection to Net Zero Targets

India’s argument is legally and ethically grounded:

Net zero is not mentioned in the Paris Agreement.
Paris focuses on INDCs, not externally imposed targets.
Opening parallel discussions dilutes existing commitments.
India needs:
- Rapid economic growth
- Affordable energy
Carbon removal technologies are:
- Expensive
- Unreliable at scale

📌 India is on track to over-achieve all three Paris targets.

📊 UNEP Emissions Gap Report (EGR)

Released annually by UNEP.
Managed by the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre.

Purpose:

To measure the gap between required action and actual action to meet Paris goals.

🔍 Key Findings: EGR 2022

Current policies → 2.8°C warming
Even full NDC implementation → 2.4–2.6°C
NDCs reduce emissions by only 1% by 2030
Food systems remain neglected
G20 responsible for 75% of emissions
India’s per capita emissions: 2.4 tCO₂e (well below global average)

🔥 Key Findings: EGR 2023

Temperature Outlook:

3°C warming by 2100
Only 14% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C

Emissions:

Global emissions hit 57.4 GtCO₂e (record high)
Fossil fuels are the main driver
All sectors (except transport) surpassed pre-COVID levels

Inequality:

Top 10% income group → 48% emissions
Least developed countries → 3–4%

Commitment Gap:

Only 9 countries updated NDCs post COP-27
India shows an 8% implementation gap

🧭 Recommendations by EGR 2023

Low-carbon development support for developing countries
Scaled-up climate finance
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) strategies to offset residual emissions

Emissions Gap Report (EGR) 2024 – Key Findings

Temperature Outlook

Under current policies, global warming is projected at ~3.1°C above pre-industrial levels.
Even with full implementation of all Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), warming would still reach ~2.6°C.
The Paris Agreement target (well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C) is at serious risk.

Requirements to limit warming to 1.5°C:

Global greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025.
Emissions must decline by ~43% by 2030 (from current levels).

Emissions Status

Global GHG emissions (2023): 57.1 GtCO₂e (highest ever recorded).
Annual growth (2023 vs 2022): +1.3% globally.
India’s emissions growth (2023): +6.1%, reflecting rapid development and energy demand.

Major Emitters

G20 countries (excluding African Union):
- Contribute ~77% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Six largest emitters:
- Account for ~63% of total global emissions.

Per Capita Emissions (2022)

India: 2.9 tCO₂e
China: ~11 tCO₂e
United States: ~18 tCO₂e
Developed countries (average):
- Per capita emissions are ~3 times the global average (6.6 tCO₂e).
India, African Union, and Least Developed Countries (LDCs):
- Remain below the global per capita average, highlighting equity concerns.

Required Emissions Cuts

To keep the 1.5°C pathway viable:
- Global emissions must decline by ~7.5% annually until 2035.
Current national pledges fall far short of this requirement.

Climate Finance Gap

Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 requires:
- USD 900 billion – 2.1 trillion annually.
This is approximately ~1% of global GDP, indicating feasibility but requiring strong political commitment.

📊 UNEP Emissions Gap Report: EGR 2023 vs EGR 2024

Aspect	EGR 2023	EGR 2024
Warming trajectory	~3.0°C by 2100	~3.1°C (worsening trend)
1.5°C feasibility	Only 14% chance	At serious risk; must peak before 2025
Global emissions	57.4 GtCO₂e (record high)	57.1 GtCO₂e (2023) – still highest
Equity dimension	Top 10% → 48% emissions	Per-capita inequality emphasised
India’s position	~8% implementation gap	2.9 tCO₂e per capita (below global avg)