Drought: A Natural Hazard

Let’s begin with the basic idea.

A drought is a prolonged period of abnormal deficiency of water, mainly due to below-normal rainfall, that leads to shortage of water for agriculture, drinking, and industrial purposes.

Unlike floods or cyclones, a drought does not occur suddenly — it is a slow-onset disaster.
It develops gradually over months or even years and can affect large areas and millions of people.

🧭 Why Drought Is a Complex Phenomenon

A drought is not just “absence of rain.”
It is influenced by:

Climatic factors – rainfall, evaporation, evapotranspiration
Hydrological factors – groundwater & surface water levels
Agricultural factors – crop type, soil moisture
Socio-economic factors – land use, irrigation, poverty, migration
Ecological factors – vegetation cover, watershed conditions

👉 So, drought is both natural and man-made in character.

🌾 Types of Droughts

To understand droughts properly, we divide them based on where the deficiency is felt:

Type	Description
1️⃣ Meteorological Drought	When rainfall is < 90% of the long-term average and its distribution is uneven in time or space.
2️⃣ Agricultural Drought	Occurs when soil moisture is insufficient for crops, leading to crop failure. Government declares drought if >50% crop loss occurs due to rainfall deficiency. Areas with >30% irrigated area are not considered drought-prone.
3️⃣ Hydrological Drought	When groundwater, lakes, and reservoirs fail to be replenished, and water availability falls below normal levels.
4️⃣ Ecological Drought	When ecosystem productivity declines due to prolonged water shortage, leading to loss of vegetation and soil degradation.

💡 Extreme agricultural drought may evolve into famine — prolonged food shortage causing death and disease.

⚙️ Causes of Drought

Droughts arise from a mix of natural and anthropogenic factors.

🌦️ Natural Factors

1️⃣ Rainfall Variability

India’s average annual rainfall = ~1150 mm, but 80% comes in just 100 days (SW monsoon).
Uneven spatial distribution — some regions get <700 mm, e.g., western Rajasthan, parts of Gujarat.

2️⃣ Climatic Anomalies

El Niño weakens monsoon winds → reduced rainfall.
La Niña generally strengthens rainfall (opposite phase).

3️⃣ Global Warming & Climate Change

Alters monsoon patterns, delays onset, increases dry spells.

🧍‍♂️ Human-Induced Factors

1️⃣ Deforestation

Reduces soil moisture retention and evapotranspiration balance.

2️⃣ Neglect of Traditional Water Harvesting

Tanks, baolis, johads, ahars, pynes, etc., have been abandoned.

3️⃣ Water-Intensive Crops in Dry Areas

e.g., sugarcane or mentha in Bundelkhand, paddy in Marathwada.

4️⃣ Groundwater Over-Extraction

Tube wells have replaced community tanks — leading to falling water tables.

5️⃣ Encroachment of Wetlands

Shrinking wetlands reduce natural water storage.

6️⃣ Poor Water Management

Supply-demand mismatch, unlined canals, seepage, and inefficient irrigation.

🇮🇳 Drought Risk in India

India is one of the world’s most drought-prone countries.
Nearly 68% of India’s area is vulnerable to droughts of varying severity.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) defines several drought situations 👇

Category	Description
Drought Week	Weekly rainfall < 50% of normal.
Agricultural Drought	4 consecutive drought weeks (mid-June–Sept).
Seasonal Drought	Seasonal rainfall deficiency > 1 SD below normal.
Drought Year	Annual rainfall deficiency ≥ 20%.
Severe Drought Year	Annual rainfall deficiency 25–40%.

📊 NITI Aayog’s Water Management Insights

According to the Composite Water Management Index (CWMI):
- 2 lakh people die annually in India due to inadequate water & sanitation.
- India could lose 6% of GDP by 2050 due to water crisis.
820 million people live in river basins with per capita availability <1000 m³/year (Falkenmark threshold for water scarcity).
Declining per capita water availability + poor water governance = worsening drought vulnerability.

🗺️ Regional Distribution of Drought in India

Region / Category	Geographical Areas	Characteristics
Extreme Drought Areas	Western Rajasthan (Marusthali), Kachchh (Gujarat)	<90 mm rainfall annually; frequent multi-year droughts
Severe Drought Areas	Eastern Rajasthan, MP, Vidarbha (Maharashtra), Telangana, Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, North Interior Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, Interior Odisha	500–700 mm rainfall; high evapotranspiration
Moderate Drought Areas	Northern Rajasthan, Haryana, South UP, Rest of Gujarat, Deccan Plateau	Irregular monsoon; occasional drought cycles

💧 Drought – A Growing Challenge

68% of districts face mild to extreme meteorological droughts.
Most affected regions:
- Northwest India (Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana)
- Peninsular India (Maharashtra, Karnataka, AP, Tamil Nadu)
- Northeast — emerging drought-prone due to rainfall variability.

🧠 Conceptual Understanding

A drought is not merely “no rain.”
It is a failure of the hydrological cycle — when demand for water (agriculture, domestic, ecology) exceeds supply (rainfall, groundwater, surface water).

In simple terms:

“Drought is not the absence of rain — it’s the absence of water management.”

NDMA Guidelines (2010) — Key Recommendations

State-level Drought Monitoring Cells (DMCs): Each State should create a DMC under the SDMA to prepare vulnerability maps (in collaboration with NRSC) and coordinate response.
Control Room & ICT: Set up drought control rooms; use ICT for real-time drought information and decision support.
Watershed Approach: Government of India to prioritise watershed development across schemes as the unit of drought-proofing.
Automatic Weather Stations (AWS): IMD AWS should include soil-moisture sensors; ISRO Village Resource Centres to be leveraged for local data. Cloud-seeding policy may be considered at national level (as weather modification option).
Damage Assessment Metrics: Move beyond crop loss — assess agricultural production loss, water resource depletion, livestock loss, land degradation, deforestation and human health impacts.
Financial Instruments: Rapid income support (consumption loans), credit availability and tailor-made insurance products per agro-climatic zone.
Afforestation & Fuelwood/Forage Species: Promote species (Subabul, Seemaruba, Casuarina, Eucalyptus) and bio-diesel plantations (Jatropha, Pongamia) in appropriate zones as drought buffers.
Capacity Building: National training programme for drought management; PRIs & ULBs to be trained and mobilised for awareness and relief/rehab activities.
Agricultural Measures: Subsidised short-duration seeds during delayed monsoon; promote inter-cropping, mulching, weeding and other water-saving agronomic practices.
Animal Husbandry Measures: Establish fodder banks, use tank bunds for fodder production, and market interventions to stabilise fodder prices.

Impact & Rationale for these Measures

Scale of exposure: ~42% of cultivable land in drought-prone districts; rainfed crops form large share of cropped area (48% food crops; 68% non-food crops).
Livelihood shock: Severe droughts cut production by 20–40% in rainfed areas; small/marginal farmers are disproportionately affected (linked to farmer distress).
Why watershed & irrigation matter: Watershed works and irrigation reduce variability in water availability and are the single most effective drought-proofing mechanisms.

Institutional Framework & Early Warning

Nodal Ministries: Ministry of Agriculture (nodal for drought crisis); Ministry of Jal Shakti (policy, monitoring, technical/financial assistance).
Operational Groups: Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) — inter-ministerial, meets weekly in monsoon; IMD & NCMRWF supply meteorological inputs.
Data & Technology: IMD, ISRO, NRSC, State agencies — use remote sensing, AWS, groundwater monitoring for early detection/forecasting.

Mitigation: Short-term & Long-term Measures (integrated approach)

Short term (relief & resilience):

Rapid credit/consumption support; subsidised seeds; wage/employment guarantees (MGNREGA) for water harvesting; fodder distribution and price stabilisation.

Long term (drought-proofing):

Watershed development (unit of drought proofing): check dams, contour bunding, recharge structures.
Revival of traditional water harvesting (tanks, johads, stepwells) and scaling up groundwater recharge (national aquifer mapping, monitoring wells).
Irrigation expansion & efficient use: drip/sprinkler, micro-irrigation, cropping pattern realignment (less water-intensive crops in arid areas).
Institutional reforms: groundwater regulation (e.g., link extraction to recharge), pricing and metering (segregation of agricultural feeders), crop insurance aligned to zones.

Key Challenges

Data gaps & siloed data: groundwater monitoring is inadequate (few observation wells vs millions of structures). Lack of integrated water data platforms.
Low farm water-use efficiency: India’s irrigation efficiency is low; excessive water use for same crop compared internationally.
Policy & legal issues: Water-rights tied to land, easy extraction of groundwater without recharge obligations in many states.
Governance fragmentation: Multiple schemes/agencies with poor coordination; weak local capacity and inadequate implementation at grassroots.
Behavioural & economic incentives: Lack of pricing, weak incentives for water conservation and crop diversification.

Successful Initiatives (models & lessons)

Jalyukt Shivar (Maharashtra): Village-level water harvesting made ~11,000 villages drought-free; groundwater table rose ~1.5–2 m in many areas.
Mukhya Mantri Jal Swavalamban (Rajasthan), Mission Kakatiya (Telangana), Sujalam Sufalam (Gujarat): Large-scale tank restoration and minor irrigation revival — demonstrable improvements in groundwater and irrigation coverage.
Local governance & regulation: Some states legislate groundwater controls — requiring recharge structures for new wells; shows regulatory path to sustainability.
Municipal incentives: Property tax rebates for rainwater harvesting (e.g., Jabalpur, Indore, Gwalior) — demand-side nudge for decentralized recharge.

Operational & Policy Imperatives — Practical checklist for UPSC answers

Create state DMCs, integrate remote sensing & in-situ networks, and operationalise real-time dashboards.
Prioritise watershed + micro-irrigation + revival of tanks under MGNREGA and other schemes.
Institutionalise groundwater governance — geo-tagging of water assets, aquifer mapping, mandatory recharge for new extraction.
Design zonal insurance and fast-disbursing rural credit mechanisms for crop/livelihood resilience.
Invest in capacity building of PRIs/ULBs, and community-based water budgeting & PM-level monitoring (national water budget).
Use behavioural economics: subsidy redesign (towards efficient irrigation), pricing, and targeted incentives for crop diversification.